Part 3
The Rise of the New New Left
By Peter Beinart
Pre-election polls in Ted Cruz’s 2012 senate race in Texas (there were no exit polls) also showed him faring worst among the young.
The likeliest explanation for this is that while younger Republican candidates may have a greater cultural connection to young voters, the ideological gulf is vast.
Even if they are only a decade older than Millennials, politicians like Cruz, Rubio, and Walker hail from a different political generation both because they came of age at a time of relative prosperity and because they were shaped by Reagan, whom Millennials don’t remember.
In fact, the militantly anti-government vision espoused by ultra-Reaganites like Cruz, Rubio, and Walker isn’t even that popular among Millennial Republicans.
As a July Pew survey notes, Republicans under 30 are more hostile to the Tea Party than any other Republican age group.
By double digits, they’re also more likely than other Republicans to support increasing the minimum wage.
Republicans may modestly increase their standing among young voters by becoming more tolerant on cultural issues and less hawkish on foreign policy, but it’s unlikely they will become truly competitive unless they follow the counsel of conservative commentators Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam and “adapt to a new reality—namely, that today, Americans are increasingly worried about their economic security.”
If there’s hope for the GOP, it’s that Millennials, while hungry for government to provide them that economic security, are also distrustful of its capacity to do so.
As a result of growing up in what Chris Hayes’ has called the “fail decade”—the decade of the Iraq War, Hurricane Katrina and the financial crisis—Millennials are even more cynical about government than the past generations of young Americans who wanted less from it.
If a Republican presidential candidate could match his Democratic opponent as a champion of economic security and yet do so in a way that required less faith in Washington’s competence and benevolence, he might boost the GOP with young voters in a way no number of pop-culture references ever could.
If the Millennials challenge Reaganite orthodoxy, they will likely challenge Clintonian orthodoxy, too.
Over the past three decades, Democratic politicians have grown accustomed to campaigning and governing in the absence of a mobilized left.
This absence has weakened them: Unlike Franklin Roosevelt or Lyndon Johnson, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama could never credibly threaten American conservatives that if they didn’t pass liberal reforms, left-wing radicals might disrupt social order.
But Democrats of the Reagan-Clinton generation have also grown comfortable with that absence.
From Tony Coelho, who during the Reagan years taught House Democrats to raise money from corporate lobbyists to Bill Clinton, who made Goldman Sachs co-chairman Robert Rubin his chief economic adviser, to Barack Obama, who gave the job to Rubin’s former deputy and alter ego, Larry Summers, Democrats have found it easier to forge relationships with the conservative worlds of big business and high finance because they have not faced much countervailing pressure from an independent movement of the left.
But that may be changing. Look at the forces that created Occupy Wall Street.
The men and women who assembled in September 2011 in Zuccotti Park bore three key characteristics.
First, they were young.
According to a survey published by City University of New York’s Murphy Institute for Worker Education and Labor, 40 percent of the core activists involved taking over the park were under 30 years old.
Second, they were highly educated. Eighty percent possessed at least a bachelors’ degree, more than twice the percentage of New Yorkers overall.
Third, they were frustrated economically.
According to the CUNY study, more than half the Occupy activists under 30 owed at least $1,000 in student debt.
More than a one-third had lost a job or been laid off in the previous five years.
In the words of David Graeber, the man widely credited with coining the slogan “We are the 99 percent,” the Occupy activists were “forward-looking people who had been stopped dead in their tracks” by bad economic times.
For a moment, Occupy shook the country. At one point in December 2011, Todd Gitlin points out in Occupy Nation, the movement had branches in one-third of the cities and towns in California.
Then it collapsed. But as the political scientist Frances Fox Piven has argued, “The great protest movements of history … did not expand in the shape of a simple rising arc of popular defiance.
Rather, they began in a particular place, sputtered and subsided, only to re-emerge elsewhere in perhaps a different form, influenced by local particularities of circumstance and culture.”
It’s impossible to know whether the protest against inequality will be such a movement.
But the forces that drove it are unlikely to subside.
Many young Americans feel that economic unfairness is costing them a shot at a decent life.
Such sentiments have long been widespread among the poor.
What’s new is their prevalence among people who saw their parents achieve—and expected for themselves—some measure of prosperity, the people Chris Hayes calls the “newly radicalized upper-middle class.”
If history is any guide, the sentiments behind Occupy will find their way into the political process, just as the anti-Vietnam movement helped create Eugene McCarthy’s presidential bid in 1968, and the civil-rights movement bred politicians like Andrew Young, Tom Bradley, and Jesse Jackson.
That’s especially likely because Occupy’s message enjoys significant support among the young.
A November 2011 Public Policy Polling survey found that while Americans over 30 opposed Occupy’s goals by close to 20 points, Millennials supported them by 12.
Bill de Blasio’s mayoral campaign offers a glimpse into what an Occupy-inspired challenge to Clintonism might look like.
In important ways, New York politics has mirrored national politics in the Reagan-Clinton era.
Since 1978, the mayoralty has been dominated by three men—Ed Koch, Rudy Giuliani, and Michael Bloomberg—who although liberal on many cultural issues have closely identified Wall Street’s interests with the city’s.
During their time in office, New York has become far safer, cleaner, more expensive, and more unequal.
In Bloomberg’s words, New York is now a “high-end product.”
City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, despite her roots on the left as a housing and LGBT activist, became Bloomberg’s heir apparent by stymieing bills that would have required businesses to give their employees paid sick leave and mandated a higher minimum wage for companies that receive government subsidies.
Early in the campaign, many commentators considered this a wise strategy and anticipated that as New York’s first lesbian mayor, Quinn would symbolize the city’s unprecedented cultural tolerance while continuing its Clintonian economic policies.
Then strange things happened. First, Anthony Weiner entered the race and snatched support from Quinn before exploding in a blaze of late-night comedy.
But when Weiner crashed, his support went not back to Quinn but to de Blasio, the candidate who most bluntly challenged Bloomberg’s economic philosophy.
Calling it “an act of equalization in a city that is desperately falling into the habit of disparity,” de Blasio made his central proposal a tax on people making over $500,000 to fund universal childcare.
He also called for requiring developers to build more affordable housing and ending the New York Police Department’s “stop and frisk” policies that had angered many African-Americans and Latinos.
Bloomberg’s deputy mayor Howard Wolfson tweeted that de Blasio’s “agenda is clear: higher taxes, bigger govt, more biz mandates.
A u-turn back to the 70s.”
But in truth, it was Wolfson who was out of date: Fewer and fewer New Yorkers remember the 1970s, when economic stagnation, rising crime, and bloated government helped elect both Ed Koch and Ronald Reagan.
What concerns them more today is that, as The New Yorker recently noted, “If the borough of Manhattan were a country, the income gap between the richest twenty per cent and the poorest twenty per cent would be on par with countries like Sierra Leone, Namibia, and Lesotho.”
In Tuesday’s Democratic primary, Quinn defeated de Blasio in those parts of New York where average income tops $175,000 per year.
But he beat her by 25 points overall.
Democrats in New York are more liberal than Democrats nationally. Still, the right presidential candidate, following de Blasio’s model, could seriously challenge Hillary Clinton.
If that sounds far-fetched, consider the last two Democratic presidential primary campaigns.
In October 2002, Howard Dean was so obscure that at a Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner, Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin repeatedly referred to him as “John.”
But in the summer of 2003, running against the Iraq War amidst a field of Washington Democrats who had voted to authorize it, Dean caught fire.
In the first quarter of the year he raised just under $3 million, less than one-third of John Kerry’s total.
In the second quarter, he shocked insiders by beating Kerry and raising over $7 million.
In the third quarter, he raised almost $15 million, far more than any Democrat ever had.
By November, Harkin, Al Gore, and the nation’s two most powerful labor unions had endorsed Dean and he was well ahead in the Iowa polls.
At the last minute, Dean flamed out, undone by harsh attacks from his rivals and his campaign’s lack of discipline.
Still, he established a template for toppling a Democratic frontrunner: inspire young voters, raise vast funds via small donations over the Web, and attack those elements of Clintonian orthodoxy that are accepted by Democratic elites but loathed by liberal activists on the ground.
In 2008, that became the template for Barack Obama.
As late as October 2007, Hillary enjoyed a 33-point lead in national polls.
But Obama made her support for the Iraq War a symbol of her alleged timidity in challenging the right-leaning consensus in Washington.
As liberals began to see him as embodying the historic change they sought, Obama started raising ungodly amounts via small donors over the Internet, which in turned won him credibility with insiders in Washington.
He overwhelmed Hillary Clinton in caucus states, where liberal activists wield greater power.
And he overwhelmed her among younger voters.
In the 2008 Iowa caucuses, youth turnout rose 30 percent and among voters under the age of 30, Obama beat Hillary by 46 points.
Hillary starts the 2016 race with formidable strengths.
After a widely applauded term as secretary of state, her approval rating is 10 points higher than it was when she began running in 2008.
Her vote to authorize Iraq will be less of a liability this time. Her campaign cannot possibly be as poorly managed.
And she won’t have to run against Barack Obama.
Still, Hillary is vulnerable to a candidate who can inspire passion and embody fundamental change, especially on the subject of economic inequality and corporate power, a subject with deep resonance among Millennial Democrats.
And the candidate who best fits that description is Elizabeth Warren.
First, as a woman, Warren would drain the deepest reservoir of pro-Hillary passion: the prospect of a female president.
While Hillary would raise vast sums, Dean and Obama have both shown that in the digital age, an insurgent can compete financially by inspiring huge numbers of small donations.
Elizabeth Warren can do that. She’s already shown a knack for going viral.
A video of her first Senate banking committee hearing, where she scolded regulators that “too-big-to-fail has become too-big-for-trial,” garnered 1 million hits on YouTube.
In her 2012 Senate race, despite never before having sought elected office, she raised $42 million, more than twice as much as the second-highest-raising Democrat.
After Bill Clinton and the Obamas, no other speaker at last summer’s Democratic convention so electrified the crowd.
Warren has done it by challenging corporate power with an intensity Clinton Democrats rarely muster.
At the convention, she attacked the “Wall Street CEOs—the same ones who wrecked our economy and destroyed millions of jobs—who still strut around Congress, no shame, demanding favors, and acting like we should thank them.”
And in one of the biggest applause lines of the entire convention, taken straight from Occupy, she thundered that “we don’t run this country for corporations, we run it for people.”
Don’t be fooled by Warren’s advanced age.
If she runs, Millennials will be her base.
No candidate is as well positioned to appeal to the young and economically insecure.
Warren won her Senate race by eight points overall, but by 30 points among the young.
The first bill she introduced in the Senate was a proposal to charge college students the same interest rates for their loans that the Federal Reserve offers big banks.
It soon garnered 100,000 hits on YouTube.
A big reason Warren’s speech went viral was its promotion by Upworthy, a website dedicated to publicizing progressive narratives.
And that speaks to another, underappreciated, advantage Warren would enjoy.
Clinton Democrats once boasted a potent intellectual and media infrastructure.
In the late 1980s and 1990s, the Democratic Leadership Council and its think tank, the Progressive Policy Institute, were the Democratic Party’s hottest ideas shops, and they dedicated themselves to restoring the party’s reputation as business-friendly.
Influential New Democratic–aligned magazines like The New Republic and Washington Monthly also championed the cause.
Today, that New Democratic infrastructure barely exists.
The DLC has closed down.
The New Republic and Washington Monthly have moved left.
And all the new powerhouses of the liberal media—from Paul Krugman (who was radicalized during the Bush years) to Jon Stewart (who took over The Daily Show in 1999) to MSNBC (which as late as 2008 still carried a show hosted by Tucker Carlson)—believe the Democrats are too soft on Wall Street.
You can see that shift in the race for governor of the Federal Reserve, where the liberal media has rallied behind Janet Yellen and against the more Wall Street–identified Larry Summers.
In the age of MSNBC, populist Democrats enjoy a media echo chamber that gives them an advantage over pro-business Democrats that did not exist a decade ago.
And if Clinton, who liberal pundits respect, runs against Warren, who liberal pundits revere, that echo chamber will benefit Warren.
Of course, Warren might not run.
Or she might prove unready for the national stage. (She has no foreign-policy experience).
But the youthful, anti-corporate passion that could propel her candidacy will be there either way.
If Hillary Clinton is shrewd, she will embrace it, and thus narrow the path for a populist challenger.
Just as New York by electing Ed Koch in 1978 foreshadowed a national shift to the right, New York in 2013 is foreshadowing a national shift to the left.
The door is closing on the Reagan-Clinton era. It would be ironic if it was a Clinton herself who sealed it shut.
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Peter Beinart is associate professor of
journalism and political science at the City University of New York and a
senior fellow at the New America Foundation.
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