The Odds of War in Syria?
A Lot Higher Now.

By Michael Tomasky

Aug 31, 2013–-President Obama did the right thing, morally and constitutionally.

Now the question is will Congress follow suit and approve a strike on Syria—or will they take the side of a murderous war criminal?

Isn't it delicious that the President decided to return the volley?

Michael Tomasky runs the numbers.

President Obama did the right thing Saturday, on a number of levels.

Who cares? It's not our fight! Oops! Did I say that with my outside voice?

The first and most obvious one: The Constitution calls for it

Yay! Constitution...You Rock!

Yes, we’ve got a history now of more than 50 years of presidents not going to Congress.

And Congress hates that...they sit around whining...who's your daddy? 

One of them is named Barack Obama (on Libya).

Bad Barack! Bad! Bad! Bad!

But today he did the right thing by the Constitution:  “Having made my decision as commander-in-chief based on what I think are our national security interests, I’m also mindful that I’m the president of the world’s oldest constitutional democracy.”

Well said!

Kind of sad that it’s so stunning and refreshing to hear a president acknowledge that he shares constitutional power, but stunning and refreshing nevertheless!

Yes, stunning. I'm very stunned.

This precedent will now be cited by congresses well into the future whenever a president wants to undertake a jolly little shoot-up, he’ll need to go to Congress first (for big, real, ground-troop wars, the pressure to consult Congress will always be great).

Hey, Congress! How 'bout a little shoot-em-up??

It’s a big relinquishing of power, a major constitutional re-calibration that will outlast him and the yahoos whose votes he’s going to be seeking, and President Obama deserves props for it.

It was also manifestly clear that this is what the public wanted him to do—79 percent, in yesterday’s NBC poll.

79% can't be ignored.

If he had launched a strike without consulting Congress in the face of those kinds of numbers and something went really wrong, look out.

That way leads to political calamity and, possibly impeachment.

Impeachment? Did I hear Impeachment?The papers are ready! We're just waiting for as much as a crossed eye then we'll have him!

So it’s smart in terms of self-preservation as well as principle.

Hear that, Congress? Move your bloomin' arse!

During Obama's White House statement on Saturday, he announced that he will be seeking a Congressional vote on Syria, and that he's prepared to order military action.

Finally, in terms of the domestic political interpretation of any potential military action, no matter what he does, Obama can’t lose.

Bring out the Schnapps! It's party time!

If Congress says no, then he doesn’t have to launch a strike that is making Americans very jumpy.

True!

If it says yes, then public opinion will presumably come around, and probably world opinion, too, in the 10 or so days between now and the House vote.

Will it be Yes...or will it be No!

So those are the upsides.

Waddaya mean...up side? What could possibly go wrong??

Now let’s do some nose-counting.

First, blow!

In the Senate, I presume a resolution will pass.

That's a good thing isn't it??

President Obama might lose a very small number of Democrats, and maybe Independent Bernie Sanders.

Bernie...I love ya...do you think you could support the Prez on this one itzy bitzy little thing? Pretty Please?

But he should get several Senate Republicans—McCain and Graham, their buddy Kelly Ayotte, probably Lisa Murkowski, Bob Corker, a few others who aren’t up for reelection this year and in hiding from the tea party.

McCain and Graham will push President Obama to do more than he wants, to do a strike that could lead to regime change, but one would hope they can agree on language to make both sides happy.

Harry Reid said Saturday he’d try to bring the Senate back early for a vote, meaning it will say yes first, adding to the drama as we turn to the House.

There?

Yesterday, I thought the chance the House would pass a war authorization for this president was about 0 percent.

Today I’ve revised that up to about 5 percent.

The Pubs just love a war...but, for this president? Not so much!

I think a certain number will be so favorably impressed/shocked by President Obama’s decision to consult them that they’ll be inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I still consider approval a real long shot, though

Me too...

Consider first the number of possible Democratic defections.

So far, we know that 18 Democrats signed a letter circulated by Republicans stating that a strike undertaken without congressional approval would violate the Constitution.

That concern is taken off the table, so maybe those 18 will play ball.

But you have to think that maybe a couple dozen of the most liberal members, representing districts where three-quarters of their constituents are telling them no, will vote against.

If I’m right about that, it would mean that President Obama would need around 45 Republican votes.

Possible?

I guess.

Wait!  Lemme be more specific.

NO!

But keep an eye over the weekend on how ferociously the media wingnuts start whipping this vote.

What’s Rush Limbaugh going to be saying?

Who phucken cares what that fat Oxycotin riddled slob thinks just cuz he's got all the money in the world?

He is also bereft of the constitutional argument now, of course, so what’s his new excuse going to be and how hard is he going to push people to oppose a strike?

Rand Paul and the other libertarians?

Goes in the wpc column.

The various tea party movements?

Oh...paleeeze! 


Will Congress fulfill its moral ones, or is their hatred of Obama so great that they will instead choose the side of a monstrous murderer?

I'm betting on plan 2.

For most House Republicans, this vote is a chance to humiliate President Obama before the entire world.

You noticed that too?

I genuinely don’t know.

It will be fascinating to watch.

Yeah, fascinating.

President Obama said that he’s going to share the evidence with Congress.

Do you have enough for everybody??

Will the evidence be persuasive?

Nah.

Remember, it only has to be persuasive to about one in six of them.

One in six?

For most of them, this vote is a chance to humiliate President Obama before the entire world.

Sorry, guys. This President has way too much class. You, on the other hand are going to look like a bunch of dorfusses!

That’s an opportunity that’s just going to get right-wing juices flowing furiously, and most of them will inevitably vote that way.

My...you're a lovable bunch, aren't you? 

But I suppose a narrow pro-strike vote is possible.

And what does President Obama do if the Senate votes yes by a fairly strong margin, say 62 to 38 or so, and he loses narrowly in the House, by fewer than 10 votes?

Then it's tough s**t for President Obama, isn't it! 

Could he say in essence, well, I consider the overwhelming Senate vote more binding than this razor-thin House vote?

No!

That’s not impossible, either.

Oh yes it is. Give it up, President Obama. Screw them either way. You're done with these fux!

Final question, and in many ways the most important one, in that it’s not about U.S. politics but about the actual thing at hand: What’s Bashar al-Assad going to be spending the next 10 days doing?

I dunno. 

Is he going to be nervously pacing the palace?

That's what he gets the big bux for.

Is the slaughter going to intensify or abate?

Anybody's guess.

Is he enough of a madman to use chemical weapons again in the next few days?

He'd be wise to hold off on that, donchu think?

Anything like that would seem a clear signal that he—and Iran—want to draw the United States into conflict.

Oh phuck!

But it seems more likely his moves will be defensive, moving things around.

Obama is still in a spot.

Yeah, he's still in a spot. No good answers here.

After all, he might be forced into a position where, after all this tough talk about century-old international norms, he can’t take action.

It could be worse. 

Depending on how things play out, this could do enormous damage to his international standing.

Somehow I don't think his international standing is his first concern. Remember, he's following the last administration. Need he worry? 

And more importantly, Assad would go unpunished.

Not our business, is it?

All of which makes this week one of the most important in President Obama’s tenure. 

They are all important.

The argument to the Republicans in the House and the American people is simple.

Yeah, simple.

He’s fulfilled his constitutional duties.

Amen to that..

******
Newsweek/Daily Beast special correspondent Michael Tomasky is also editor of Democracy: A Journal of Ideas.