Shift in South Carolina's Polls

By Jim Geraghty

May 6, 2013--This is not what Democrats wanted or expected to see the day before South Carolina’s special House election.

Public Policy Polling (PPP)-- final poll of the special election in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District is too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert-Busch, 47–46.

The one point lead for Sanford represents a 10-point reversal from PPP’s poll of the race two weeks ago, when Colbert-Busch led by 9 points at 50–41.

Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting Colbert-Busch as a liberal.

A plurality of voters in the district (47%),  say they think Colbert-Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically ‘about right.’

Colbert-Busch’s favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44.

While Colbert-Busch is seen as too liberal, 48% of voters think that Sanford’s views are “about right” on the issues compared to just 38% who see him as too conservative.

Sanford has also seen some repair to his image over the course of the campaign.

Although he’s still unpopular, sporting a –11 net favorability rating at 43/54, that’s up a net 13 points from our first poll in March when he was at 34/58.

Either the Sanford campaign is a bunch of messaging geniuses, or Colbert-Busch’s lead was never that high.

“Representative James Clyburn (D-SC) told reporters at the press conference today that internal polling data never gave Colbert-Busch more than a 3-point lead.”

The other key development in this race over the last two weeks is that Republicans are returning to the electorate.

On the last poll, conducted right after the trespassing charges against Sanford became public, the likely electorate had voted for Mitt Romney by only 5 points in a district that he actually won by 18.

That suggested many Republican voters were depressed and planning to stay home.

Sanford may have the momentum, but it’s not over until the votes are counted* tomorrow night.

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*Or not counted.
How do you spell hypocrite?
Bet his voice is the loudest against abortion laws...unless, of course, he is seeking one for his Argentina honey. What a crock!